Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Alianza Lima vs Cienciano

  1. Alianza Lima56%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Cienciano19%

1.61 expected goals for Alianza Lima

0.98 expected goals for Cienciano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Alianza Lima the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Alianza Lima defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cienciano attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Alianza Lima

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Alianza Lima attack+24%
  3. Cienciano defence−14%

Expected goals1.61

Cienciano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cienciano attack+25%
  2. Alianza Lima defence−43%

Expected goals0.98

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.7 for Alianza Lima and 3.9 for Cienciano

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.7 for Alianza Lima and 2.7 for Cienciano

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.3 expected

17.2 for Alianza Lima and 10.1 for Cienciano

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.2 expected

10.9 for Alianza Lima and 14.3 for Cienciano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.