Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 31 October, 16:00

Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College

  1. Alianza Atletico47%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Juan Pablo II College30%

1.77 expected goals for Alianza Atletico

1.54 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Alianza Atletico has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Juan Pablo II College win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Alianza Atletico attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Alianza Atletico

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Alianza Atletico attack+26%
  3. Juan Pablo II College defence−7%

Expected goals1.77

Juan Pablo II College

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Juan Pablo II College attack+10%
  2. Alianza Atletico defence+3%

Expected goals1.54

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.3 for Alianza Atletico and 4.1 for Juan Pablo II College

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Alianza Atletico and 2.3 for Juan Pablo II College

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.9 expected

16.4 for Alianza Atletico and 11.5 for Juan Pablo II College

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.6 for Alianza Atletico and 12.3 for Juan Pablo II College

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 04:07 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.