Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Thursday 29 October, 15:30

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima

  1. Sporting Cristal33%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Alianza Lima41%

1.20 expected goals for Sporting Cristal

1.57 expected goals for Alianza Lima

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sporting Cristal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sporting Cristal attack+39%
  3. Alianza Lima defence−43%

Expected goals1.20

Alianza Lima

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Alianza Lima attack+24%
  2. Sporting Cristal defence−7%

Expected goals1.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.7 for Sporting Cristal and 5.3 for Alianza Lima

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Sporting Cristal and 2.4 for Alianza Lima

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.2 expected

12.3 for Sporting Cristal and 15.0 for Alianza Lima

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.6 for Sporting Cristal and 11.7 for Alianza Lima

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.