ADT vs UCV Moquegua

ADT51%
Draw29%
UCV Moquegua20%

1.39 expected goals for ADT

0.88 expected goals for UCV Moquegua

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

ADT has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a UCV Moquegua win at 20%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals67%It happened
Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals19%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Both teams score48%
ADT or draw80%
Draw or UCV Moquegua49%
No draw71%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.8 for ADT and 4.5 for UCV Moquegua

Over 8.5 corners55%
Over 9.5 corners44%
Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for ADT and 2.3 for UCV Moquegua

Over 3.5 cards62%
Over 4.5 cards43%
Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.8 expected

15.8 for ADT and 11.0 for UCV Moquegua

Over 20.5 shots81%
Over 22.5 shots71%
Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

24.7 expected

12.1 for ADT and 12.7 for UCV Moquegua

Over 20.5 fouls78%
Over 22.5 fouls64%
Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.