UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

UCV Moquegua23%
Draw27%
Alianza Lima50%

0.68 expected goals for UCV Moquegua

1.55 expected goals for Alianza Lima

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Alianza Lima has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a UCV Moquegua win at 23%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals66%It did not happen
Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals19%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Both teams score45%
UCV Moquegua or draw49%
Draw or Alianza Lima77%
No draw73%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.6 for UCV Moquegua and 4.8 for Alianza Lima

Over 8.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for UCV Moquegua and 2.2 for Alianza Lima

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards45%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.1 expected

11.2 for UCV Moquegua and 16.9 for Alianza Lima

Over 20.5 shots84%
Over 22.5 shots76%
Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.5 for UCV Moquegua and 12.4 for Alianza Lima

Over 20.5 fouls79%
Over 22.5 fouls66%
Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.