Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 24 October, 15:00

Final score

Atletico Grau1-1ADT

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Atletico Grau win (40%).

Atletico Grau vs ADT

  1. Atletico Grau40%
  2. Draw28%
  3. ADT32%

1.30 expected goals for Atletico Grau

1.27 expected goals for ADT

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Atletico Grau has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a ADT win at 32%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Atletico Grau and 4.4 for ADT

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Atletico Grau and 2.2 for ADT

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

28.9 expected

15.1 for Atletico Grau and 13.8 for ADT

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

23.2 expected

13.5 for Atletico Grau and 9.7 for ADT

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.