Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 24 October, 15:00

Final score

Comerciantes Unidos3-1Cienciano

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Cienciano win (43%).

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano

  1. Comerciantes Unidos32%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Cienciano43%

1.23 expected goals for Comerciantes Unidos

1.67 expected goals for Cienciano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Cienciano has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Comerciantes Unidos win at 32%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

4.7 for Comerciantes Unidos and 5.4 for Cienciano

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Comerciantes Unidos and 2.4 for Cienciano

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.5 expected

13.4 for Comerciantes Unidos and 16.1 for Cienciano

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

26.6 expected

11.5 for Comerciantes Unidos and 15.2 for Cienciano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls76%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.