Probably Football

Matches

Superliga (Denmark)

FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland

  1. FC Nordsjaelland33%
  2. Draw27%
  3. FC Midtjylland40%

1.18 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland

1.36 expected goals for FC Midtjylland

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Midtjylland defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Nordsjaelland defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Nordsjaelland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Nordsjaelland attack+89%
  3. FC Midtjylland defence−58%

Expected goals1.18

FC Midtjylland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Midtjylland attack+126%
  2. FC Nordsjaelland defence−56%

Expected goals1.36

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.5 for FC Nordsjaelland and 3.9 for FC Midtjylland

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.4 for FC Nordsjaelland and 2.3 for FC Midtjylland

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

28.0 expected

15.5 for FC Nordsjaelland and 12.4 for FC Midtjylland

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.6 for FC Nordsjaelland and 12.4 for FC Midtjylland

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.