Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961

  1. NK Slaven Belupo36%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Istra 196140%

1.52 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo

1.72 expected goals for Istra 1961

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the NK Slaven Belupo attack, which scores 38% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Istra 1961 defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

NK Slaven Belupo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. NK Slaven Belupo attack+38%
  3. Istra 1961 defence−27%

Expected goals1.52

Istra 1961

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Istra 1961 attack+35%
  2. NK Slaven Belupo defence−7%

Expected goals1.72

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.4 for NK Slaven Belupo and 4.4 for Istra 1961

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for NK Slaven Belupo and 2.3 for Istra 1961

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

26.1 expected

14.2 for NK Slaven Belupo and 11.9 for Istra 1961

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

24.1 expected

12.2 for NK Slaven Belupo and 11.9 for Istra 1961

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.