Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

  1. HNK Rijeka46%
  2. Draw30%
  3. NK Varazdin24%

1.34 expected goals for HNK Rijeka

0.93 expected goals for NK Varazdin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

HNK Rijeka has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a NK Varazdin win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the HNK Rijeka defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the NK Varazdin defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 8.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

HNK Rijeka

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. HNK Rijeka attack+52%
  3. NK Varazdin defence−42%

Expected goals1.34

NK Varazdin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. NK Varazdin attack+24%
  2. HNK Rijeka defence−44%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.4 expected

4.6 for HNK Rijeka and 3.8 for NK Varazdin

  1. Over 8.5 corners45%
  2. Over 9.5 corners35%
  3. Over 10.5 corners25%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for HNK Rijeka and 2.2 for NK Varazdin

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

23.4 expected

12.2 for HNK Rijeka and 11.1 for NK Varazdin

  1. Over 20.5 shots65%
  2. Over 22.5 shots53%
  3. Over 24.5 shots41%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.7 for HNK Rijeka and 11.2 for NK Varazdin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.