Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb46%
  2. Draw31%
  3. NK Osijek23%

1.32 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

0.92 expected goals for NK Osijek

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a NK Osijek win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the NK Osijek defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 11.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack+17%
  3. NK Osijek defence−25%

Expected goals1.32

NK Osijek

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. NK Osijek attack+4%
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence−35%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

5.5 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 5.7 for NK Osijek

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.4 for NK Osijek

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.9 expected

13.2 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 14.7 for NK Osijek

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

27.4 expected

13.7 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 13.7 for NK Osijek

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls68%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.