Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

  1. HNK Hajduk Split59%
  2. Draw24%
  3. HNK Gorica17%

1.70 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split

0.80 expected goals for HNK Gorica

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes HNK Hajduk Split the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the HNK Hajduk Split defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the HNK Hajduk Split attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 8.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

HNK Hajduk Split

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. HNK Hajduk Split attack+63%
  3. HNK Gorica defence−31%

Expected goals1.70

HNK Gorica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. HNK Gorica attack+1%
  2. HNK Hajduk Split defence−42%

Expected goals0.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

5.0 for HNK Hajduk Split and 3.8 for HNK Gorica

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for HNK Hajduk Split and 2.3 for HNK Gorica

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.4 expected

18.3 for HNK Hajduk Split and 9.1 for HNK Gorica

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.5 expected

12.4 for HNK Hajduk Split and 13.0 for HNK Gorica

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.