Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

NK Varazdin1-2NK Slaven Belupo

The model gave this result 19%. Its most likely result was a NK Varazdin win (58%).

NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo

  1. NK Varazdin58%
  2. Draw23%
  3. NK Slaven Belupo19%

1.87 expected goals for NK Varazdin

1.02 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes NK Varazdin the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.7 for NK Varazdin and 4.0 for NK Slaven Belupo

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for NK Varazdin and 2.5 for NK Slaven Belupo

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

26.2 expected

15.9 for NK Varazdin and 10.3 for NK Slaven Belupo

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

26.2 expected

13.1 for NK Varazdin and 13.1 for NK Slaven Belupo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.