Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Istra 19612-2HNK Hajduk Split

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a HNK Hajduk Split win (45%).

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Istra 196128%
  2. Draw27%
  3. HNK Hajduk Split45%

1.12 expected goals for Istra 1961

1.57 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

HNK Hajduk Split has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Istra 1961 win at 28%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.6 for Istra 1961 and 4.4 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Istra 1961 and 2.3 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

25.5 expected

12.5 for Istra 1961 and 13.0 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

25.8 expected

12.4 for Istra 1961 and 13.4 for HNK Hajduk Split

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls71%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.