Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Operario-PR vs Sport Recife

  1. Operario-PR42%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Sport Recife32%

1.37 expected goals for Operario-PR

1.47 expected goals for Sport Recife

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Operario-PR has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sport Recife win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sport Recife attack, which scores 37% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sport Recife defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 11.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Operario-PR

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Operario-PR attack+17%
  3. Sport Recife defence−22%

Expected goals1.37

Sport Recife

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sport Recife attack+37%
  2. Operario-PR defence−21%

Expected goals1.47

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

6.7 for Operario-PR and 4.4 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Operario-PR and 2.3 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

33.6 expected

19.9 for Operario-PR and 13.7 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 20.5 shots95%
  2. Over 22.5 shots91%
  3. Over 24.5 shots85%

Fouls

29.4 expected

14.3 for Operario-PR and 15.0 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls88%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls79%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.