Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Vila Nova vs Juventude

  1. Vila Nova35%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Juventude35%

0.93 expected goals for Vila Nova

1.23 expected goals for Juventude

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 35%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Juventude defence, which lets in 54% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vila Nova defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vila Nova

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vila Nova attack+32%
  3. Juventude defence−54%

Expected goals0.93

Juventude

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Juventude attack+37%
  2. Vila Nova defence−34%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.3 for Vila Nova and 4.8 for Juventude

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.2 for Vila Nova and 2.4 for Juventude

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

26.2 expected

14.1 for Vila Nova and 12.1 for Juventude

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

31.1 expected

15.8 for Vila Nova and 15.3 for Juventude

  1. Over 20.5 fouls96%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls92%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls86%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.