Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Novorizontino vs Operario-PR

  1. Novorizontino70%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Operario-PR11%

2.16 expected goals for Novorizontino

0.82 expected goals for Operario-PR

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Novorizontino the clear favourite: 70% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Novorizontino defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Novorizontino attack, which scores 80% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Novorizontino

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Novorizontino attack+80%
  3. Operario-PR defence−21%

Expected goals2.16

Operario-PR

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Operario-PR attack+16%
  2. Novorizontino defence−48%

Expected goals0.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.2 for Novorizontino and 4.5 for Operario-PR

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Novorizontino and 2.4 for Operario-PR

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

29.0 expected

18.1 for Novorizontino and 10.9 for Operario-PR

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

30.1 expected

16.5 for Novorizontino and 13.6 for Operario-PR

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls90%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls82%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.