Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Cuiaba vs São Bernardo

  1. Cuiaba40%
  2. Draw31%
  3. São Bernardo29%

0.96 expected goals for Cuiaba

1.01 expected goals for São Bernardo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cuiaba has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a São Bernardo win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cuiaba defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the São Bernardo defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cuiaba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cuiaba attack−8%
  3. São Bernardo defence−31%

Expected goals0.96

São Bernardo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. São Bernardo attack+30%
  2. Cuiaba defence−43%

Expected goals1.01

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals85%
  2. Over 1.5 goals59%
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%
  4. Over 3.5 goals14%
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

6.2 for Cuiaba and 4.4 for São Bernardo

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Cuiaba and 2.4 for São Bernardo

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

28.2 expected

17.9 for Cuiaba and 10.3 for São Bernardo

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

25.4 expected

12.7 for Cuiaba and 12.6 for São Bernardo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.