Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife

  1. Botafogo SP39%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Sport Recife32%

1.10 expected goals for Botafogo SP

1.25 expected goals for Sport Recife

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Botafogo SP defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sport Recife attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 11.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Botafogo SP

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Botafogo SP attack−6%
  3. Sport Recife defence−22%

Expected goals1.10

Sport Recife

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sport Recife attack+39%
  2. Botafogo SP defence−34%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.9 for Botafogo SP and 4.6 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 8.5 corners74%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners56%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Botafogo SP and 2.3 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.5 expected

16.4 for Botafogo SP and 12.0 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

28.5 expected

16.1 for Botafogo SP and 12.4 for Sport Recife

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.