Sport Recife vs Criciuma

Sport Recife43%
Draw29%
Criciuma28%

1.15 expected goals for Sport Recife

1.09 expected goals for Criciuma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sport Recife has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Criciuma win at 28%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 11.3 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals66%It happened
Over 2.5 goals39%It happened
Over 3.5 goals19%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Both teams score46%
Sport Recife or draw72%
Draw or Criciuma57%
No draw71%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.3 expected

5.2 for Sport Recife and 6.1 for Criciuma

Over 8.5 corners73%
Over 9.5 corners64%
Over 10.5 corners54%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Sport Recife and 2.3 for Criciuma

Over 3.5 cards63%
Over 4.5 cards43%
Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.8 expected

12.9 for Sport Recife and 15.9 for Criciuma

Over 20.5 shots87%
Over 22.5 shots79%
Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

26.7 expected

12.5 for Sport Recife and 14.2 for Criciuma

Over 20.5 fouls86%
Over 22.5 fouls76%
Over 24.5 fouls64%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.