São Bernardo vs Vila Nova

São Bernardo41%
Draw29%
Vila Nova30%

1.13 expected goals for São Bernardo

1.17 expected goals for Vila Nova

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

São Bernardo has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Vila Nova win at 30%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals68%It happened
Over 2.5 goals39%It happened
Over 3.5 goals20%It happened
Over 4.5 goals8%It happened

Both teams score46%
São Bernardo or draw70%
Draw or Vila Nova59%
No draw71%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.6 for São Bernardo and 5.1 for Vila Nova

Over 8.5 corners67%
Over 9.5 corners58%
Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for São Bernardo and 2.2 for Vila Nova

Over 3.5 cards61%
Over 4.5 cards41%
Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.4 expected

13.6 for São Bernardo and 14.8 for Vila Nova

Over 20.5 shots86%
Over 22.5 shots78%
Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

27.3 expected

13.6 for São Bernardo and 13.7 for Vila Nova

Over 20.5 fouls88%
Over 22.5 fouls79%
Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.