Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 24 October, 14:00

Final score

Ceara0-2Goias

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a Ceara win (45%).

Ceara vs Goias

  1. Ceara45%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Goias25%

1.13 expected goals for Ceara

0.96 expected goals for Goias

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Ceara has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Goias win at 25%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.6 for Ceara and 4.9 for Goias

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.1 for Ceara and 2.4 for Goias

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

31.5 expected

16.3 for Ceara and 15.2 for Goias

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

28.4 expected

15.2 for Ceara and 13.1 for Goias

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls84%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.