Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 24 October, 14:00

Final score

Avai0-2Botafogo SP

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a Avai win (43%).

Avai vs Botafogo SP

  1. Avai43%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Botafogo SP25%

1.01 expected goals for Avai

0.89 expected goals for Botafogo SP

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Avai has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Botafogo SP win at 25%. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals57%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals13%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

4.8 for Avai and 5.7 for Botafogo SP

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.6 for Avai and 2.2 for Botafogo SP

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

25.9 expected

11.2 for Avai and 14.7 for Botafogo SP

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

28.6 expected

13.8 for Avai and 14.8 for Botafogo SP

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.