Probably Football

Matches

Canadian Premier League (Canada)

Sunday 25 October, 15:00

Final score

Pacific FC1-1Forge

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Forge win (56%).

Pacific FC vs Forge

  1. Pacific FC20%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Forge56%

0.81 expected goals for Pacific FC

2.37 expected goals for Forge

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Forge the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.0 for Pacific FC and 4.9 for Forge

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Pacific FC and 2.3 for Forge

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.0 expected

11.1 for Pacific FC and 13.9 for Forge

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

27.5 expected

13.6 for Pacific FC and 13.9 for Forge

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls80%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.