Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile

  1. U. Catolica37%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Universidad de Chile40%

1.43 expected goals for U. Catolica

1.87 expected goals for Universidad de Chile

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Universidad de Chile attack, which scores 85% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Universidad de Chile defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

U. Catolica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. U. Catolica attack+66%
  3. Universidad de Chile defence−43%

Expected goals1.42

Universidad de Chile

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Universidad de Chile attack+85%
  2. U. Catolica defence−26%

Expected goals1.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.2 for U. Catolica and 5.5 for Universidad de Chile

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for U. Catolica and 2.4 for Universidad de Chile

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.0 for U. Catolica and 13.0 for Universidad de Chile

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.8 for U. Catolica and 10.7 for Universidad de Chile

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.