O'Higgins vs Nublense
- O'Higgins50%
- Draw25%
- Nublense25%
1.64 expected goals for O'Higgins
1.03 expected goals for Nublense
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
O'Higgins has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Nublense win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the O'Higgins defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the O'Higgins attack, which scores 30% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
O'Higgins
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- O'Higgins attack+30%
- Nublense defence−16%
Expected goals1.64
Nublense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Nublense attack+12%
- O'Higgins defence−32%
Expected goals1.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score53%
- O'Higgins or draw75%
- Draw or Nublense50%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
4.8 for O'Higgins and 4.5 for Nublense
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners34%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.7 for O'Higgins and 2.5 for Nublense
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
26.6 expected
17.9 for O'Higgins and 8.7 for Nublense
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
20.7 expected
9.9 for O'Higgins and 10.8 for Nublense
- Over 20.5 fouls50%
- Over 22.5 fouls34%
- Over 24.5 fouls21%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.