Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion

  1. Colo Colo71%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Universidad de Concepcion11%

2.38 expected goals for Colo Colo

0.74 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Colo Colo the clear favourite: 71% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Colo Colo attack, which scores 61% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Colo Colo defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 12.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Colo Colo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Colo Colo attack+61%
  3. Universidad de Concepcion defence−2%

Expected goals2.38

Universidad de Concepcion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Universidad de Concepcion attack−17%
  2. Colo Colo defence−34%

Expected goals0.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

12.4 expected

8.3 for Colo Colo and 4.0 for Universidad de Concepcion

  1. Over 8.5 corners79%
  2. Over 9.5 corners71%
  3. Over 10.5 corners63%

Cards

4.6 expected

1.5 for Colo Colo and 3.1 for Universidad de Concepcion

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

31.4 expected

22.2 for Colo Colo and 9.2 for Universidad de Concepcion

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

21.4 expected

9.3 for Colo Colo and 12.1 for Universidad de Concepcion

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.