Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Union La Calera3-1U. Catolica

The model gave this result 35%. Its most likely result was a U. Catolica win (39%).

Union La Calera vs U. Catolica

  1. Union La Calera35%
  2. Draw26%
  3. U. Catolica39%

0.99 expected goals for Union La Calera

1.43 expected goals for U. Catolica

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

6.0 for Union La Calera and 4.1 for U. Catolica

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.1 for Union La Calera and 2.6 for U. Catolica

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

26.0 expected

15.3 for Union La Calera and 10.7 for U. Catolica

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.1 expected

11.3 for Union La Calera and 12.8 for U. Catolica

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.