Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Saturday 24 October, 19:00

Final score

Nublense2-1Coquimbo Unido

The model gave this result 35%. Its most likely result was a Coquimbo Unido win (41%).

Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido

  1. Nublense35%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Coquimbo Unido41%

1.05 expected goals for Nublense

1.64 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.4 for Nublense and 3.9 for Coquimbo Unido

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.4 for Nublense and 2.2 for Coquimbo Unido

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.1 expected

15.9 for Nublense and 11.2 for Coquimbo Unido

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.5 for Nublense and 10.9 for Coquimbo Unido

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.