Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Saturday 24 October, 19:00

Final score

D. La Serena3-1Concepción

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Concepción win (40%).

D. La Serena vs Concepción

  1. D. La Serena36%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Concepción40%

1.23 expected goals for D. La Serena

1.63 expected goals for Concepción

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.0 for D. La Serena and 4.5 for Concepción

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for D. La Serena and 2.4 for Concepción

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.9 expected

15.5 for D. La Serena and 10.4 for Concepción

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

22.4 expected

10.8 for D. La Serena and 11.5 for Concepción

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.