Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

A. Italiano1-1Huachipato

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a A. Italiano win (45%).

A. Italiano vs Huachipato

  1. A. Italiano45%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Huachipato29%

1.42 expected goals for A. Italiano

1.06 expected goals for Huachipato

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A. Italiano has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Huachipato win at 29%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.6 for A. Italiano and 4.7 for Huachipato

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for A. Italiano and 2.3 for Huachipato

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.9 expected

16.1 for A. Italiano and 11.8 for Huachipato

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.7 for A. Italiano and 11.0 for Huachipato

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.