Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Sportivo Italiano vs Villa Dalmine

  1. Sportivo Italiano41%
  2. Draw34%
  3. Villa Dalmine25%

1.02 expected goals for Sportivo Italiano

0.70 expected goals for Villa Dalmine

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Villa Dalmine attack, which scores 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Villa Dalmine defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 38%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sportivo Italiano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sportivo Italiano attack−9%
  3. Villa Dalmine defence−26%

Expected goals1.02

Villa Dalmine

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Villa Dalmine attack−30%
  2. Sportivo Italiano defence−26%

Expected goals0.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals81%
  2. Over 1.5 goals52%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals10%
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.