Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

San Martín Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza

  1. San Martín Burzaco39%
  2. Draw34%
  3. UAI Urquiza27%

1.02 expected goals for San Martín Burzaco

0.80 expected goals for UAI Urquiza

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the UAI Urquiza attack, which scores 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the San Martín Burzaco attack, which scores 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

San Martín Burzaco

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. San Martín Burzaco attack−20%
  3. UAI Urquiza defence−16%

Expected goals1.02

UAI Urquiza

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. UAI Urquiza attack−44%
  2. San Martín Burzaco defence+5%

Expected goals0.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.