Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Flandria vs Deportivo Armenio

  1. Flandria32%
  2. Draw34%
  3. Deportivo Armenio34%

0.84 expected goals for Flandria

0.98 expected goals for Deportivo Armenio

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo Armenio defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Flandria attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 32% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Flandria

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Flandria attack−25%
  3. Deportivo Armenio defence−26%

Expected goals0.84

Deportivo Armenio

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Armenio attack−22%
  2. Flandria defence−7%

Expected goals0.98

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%
  3. Over 2.5 goals32%
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.