Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Deportivo Camioneros vs Excursionistas

  1. Deportivo Camioneros26%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Excursionistas44%

1.17 expected goals for Deportivo Camioneros

1.86 expected goals for Excursionistas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Excursionistas has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Deportivo Camioneros win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Excursionistas attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Excursionistas defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo Camioneros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo Camioneros attack−4%
  3. Excursionistas defence−19%

Expected goals1.17

Excursionistas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Excursionistas attack+46%
  2. Deportivo Camioneros defence−6%

Expected goals1.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.