Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Argentino Quilmes vs Brown DE Adrogue

  1. Argentino Quilmes36%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Brown DE Adrogue31%

0.76 expected goals for Argentino Quilmes

0.71 expected goals for Brown DE Adrogue

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Brown DE Adrogue attack, which scores 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Argentino Quilmes attack, which scores 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 30% chance, and both teams scoring, 35%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Argentino Quilmes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Argentino Quilmes attack−34%
  3. Brown DE Adrogue defence−24%

Expected goals0.76

Brown DE Adrogue

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Brown DE Adrogue attack−40%
  2. Argentino Quilmes defence−13%

Expected goals0.71

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals76%
  2. Over 1.5 goals44%
  3. Over 2.5 goals30%
  4. Over 3.5 goals6%
  5. Over 4.5 goals2%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.