Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK

  1. Varbergs BoIS FC47%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Ljungskile SK25%

1.47 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC

1.00 expected goals for Ljungskile SK

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Varbergs BoIS FC has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Ljungskile SK win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ljungskile SK attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Varbergs BoIS FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Varbergs BoIS FC attack−8%
  3. Ljungskile SK defence+6%

Expected goals1.47

Ljungskile SK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ljungskile SK attack−26%
  2. Varbergs BoIS FC defence−1%

Expected goals1.00

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.5 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 4.9 for Ljungskile SK

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 2.0 for Ljungskile SK

  1. Over 3.5 cards42%
  2. Over 4.5 cards23%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

25.8 expected

14.4 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 11.4 for Ljungskile SK

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

29.0 expected

10.7 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 18.3 for Ljungskile SK

  1. Over 20.5 fouls93%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls86%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls76%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.