Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Osters IF vs Helsingborg

  1. Osters IF53%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Helsingborg23%

1.94 expected goals for Osters IF

1.19 expected goals for Helsingborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Osters IF has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Helsingborg win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Helsingborg attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Osters IF defence, which lets in 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 11.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Osters IF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Osters IF attack+9%
  3. Helsingborg defence+18%

Expected goals1.94

Helsingborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Helsingborg attack−27%
  2. Osters IF defence+21%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

5.7 for Osters IF and 5.4 for Helsingborg

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Osters IF and 2.3 for Helsingborg

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

23.8 expected

13.6 for Osters IF and 10.2 for Helsingborg

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots55%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

25.0 expected

14.3 for Osters IF and 10.8 for Helsingborg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.