IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK
- IFK Norrkoping60%
- Draw26%
- Ostersunds FK14%
1.66 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping
0.65 expected goals for Ostersunds FK
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes IFK Norrkoping the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the IFK Norrkoping defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the IFK Norrkoping attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
IFK Norrkoping
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- IFK Norrkoping attack+35%
- Ostersunds FK defence−19%
Expected goals1.66
Ostersunds FK
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Ostersunds FK attack−26%
- IFK Norrkoping defence−36%
Expected goals0.65
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score50%
- IFK Norrkoping or draw86%
- Draw or Ostersunds FK40%
- No draw74%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.