Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo

  1. Norrby IF37%
  2. Draw28%
  3. IFK Varnamo35%

1.29 expected goals for Norrby IF

1.31 expected goals for IFK Varnamo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Norrby IF attack, which scores 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the IFK Varnamo defence, which lets in 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Norrby IF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Norrby IF attack−30%
  3. IFK Varnamo defence+21%

Expected goals1.29

IFK Varnamo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. IFK Varnamo attack−16%
  2. Norrby IF defence+15%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.