Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Norway)

Ranheim vs Sogndal

  1. Ranheim53%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Sogndal26%

2.73 expected goals for Ranheim

1.92 expected goals for Sogndal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Ranheim has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Sogndal win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ranheim defence, which lets in 67% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sogndal defence, which lets in 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 74% chance, and both teams scoring, 77%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Ranheim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Ranheim attack+32%
  3. Sogndal defence+37%

Expected goals2.73

Sogndal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sogndal attack−16%
  2. Ranheim defence+67%

Expected goals1.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals95%
  3. Over 2.5 goals74%
  4. Over 3.5 goals68%
  5. Over 4.5 goals50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.