Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Norway)

Lyn vs Raufoss

  1. Lyn63%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Raufoss16%

2.47 expected goals for Lyn

1.17 expected goals for Raufoss

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Lyn the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Raufoss defence, which lets in 98% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Raufoss attack, which scores 39% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lyn

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lyn attack−17%
  3. Raufoss defence+98%

Expected goals2.47

Raufoss

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Raufoss attack−39%
  2. Lyn defence+41%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.