Kongsvinger vs Stabaek
- Kongsvinger47%
- Draw23%
- Stabaek30%
2.32 expected goals for Kongsvinger
1.83 expected goals for Stabaek
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Kongsvinger has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Stabaek win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kongsvinger attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Kongsvinger defence, which lets in 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 71%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Kongsvinger
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Kongsvinger attack+49%
- Stabaek defence+3%
Expected goals2.32
Stabaek
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Stabaek attack+8%
- Kongsvinger defence+25%
Expected goals1.83
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%
- Over 1.5 goals92%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Over 3.5 goals59%
- Over 4.5 goals40%
- Both teams score71%
- Kongsvinger or draw70%
- Draw or Stabaek53%
- No draw77%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.