Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Norway)

hodd vs Bryne

  1. hodd35%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Bryne40%

1.37 expected goals for hodd

1.56 expected goals for Bryne

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the hodd defence, which lets in 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Bryne attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

hodd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. hodd attack−11%
  3. Bryne defence+2%

Expected goals1.37

Bryne

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Bryne attack−22%
  2. hodd defence+46%

Expected goals1.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.