Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Norway)

Asane vs Haugesund

  1. Asane22%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Haugesund59%

1.42 expected goals for Asane

2.82 expected goals for Haugesund

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Haugesund the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Asane defence, which lets in 59% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Haugesund attack, which scores 31% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Asane

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Asane attack−23%
  3. Haugesund defence+23%

Expected goals1.42

Haugesund

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Haugesund attack+31%
  2. Asane defence+59%

Expected goals2.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%
  4. Over 3.5 goals61%
  5. Over 4.5 goals42%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.