Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Rosengård W vs Växjö W

  1. Rosengård W51%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Växjö W25%

1.41 expected goals for Rosengård W

0.87 expected goals for Växjö W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rosengård W has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Växjö W win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rosengård W defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Rosengård W attack, which scores 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rosengård W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rosengård W attack−14%
  3. Växjö W defence+8%

Expected goals1.41

Växjö W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Växjö W attack−7%
  2. Rosengård W defence−32%

Expected goals0.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.