Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Piteå W vs Eskilstuna United W

  1. Piteå W42%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Eskilstuna United W33%

1.11 expected goals for Piteå W

0.92 expected goals for Eskilstuna United W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Piteå W has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Eskilstuna United W win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Eskilstuna United W defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Eskilstuna United W attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Piteå W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Piteå W attack−7%
  3. Eskilstuna United W defence−21%

Expected goals1.11

Eskilstuna United W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Eskilstuna United W attack−19%
  2. Piteå W defence−16%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals61%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals15%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.