Saturday 31 October, 08:00
Brommapojkarna W vs AIK W
- Brommapojkarna W34%
- Draw22%
- AIK W44%
1.39 expected goals for Brommapojkarna W
1.57 expected goals for AIK W
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
AIK W has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Brommapojkarna W win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AIK W defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the AIK W attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Brommapojkarna W
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Brommapojkarna W attack+12%
- AIK W defence−18%
Expected goals1.39
AIK W
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- AIK W attack+21%
- Brommapojkarna W defence−4%
Expected goals1.57
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Over 3.5 goals34%
- Over 4.5 goals18%
- Both teams score50%
- Brommapojkarna W or draw56%
- Draw or AIK W66%
- No draw78%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.