Probably Football

Matches

Damallsvenskan (Sweden)

Häcken W vs Kristianstad W

  1. Häcken W90%
  2. Draw6%
  3. Kristianstad W4%

3.45 expected goals for Häcken W

0.69 expected goals for Kristianstad W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Häcken W the clear favourite: 90% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Häcken W attack, which scores 166% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Häcken W defence, which lets in 62% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Häcken W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Häcken W attack+166%
  3. Kristianstad W defence−14%

Expected goals3.45

Kristianstad W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kristianstad W attack+34%
  2. Häcken W defence−62%

Expected goals0.69

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%
  3. Over 2.5 goals73%
  4. Over 3.5 goals59%
  5. Over 4.5 goals40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.