Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK

  1. Sarpsborg 08 FF59%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Kristiansund BK18%

1.99 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.06 expected goals for Kristiansund BK

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sarpsborg 08 FF defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sarpsborg 08 FF attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sarpsborg 08 FF attack+25%
  3. Kristiansund BK defence+6%

Expected goals1.99

Kristiansund BK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kristiansund BK attack+2%
  2. Sarpsborg 08 FF defence−24%

Expected goals1.06

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

6.3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 4.4 for Kristiansund BK

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.1 for Kristiansund BK

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

29.9 expected

18.6 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 11.3 for Kristiansund BK

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

25.6 expected

13.4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 12.2 for Kristiansund BK

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.